I'm planning on opening ~3 new markets for propositions which will end before May 16, 2016.
Possible markets that I am considering are "result of Pennsylvania Democratic primary" (ends April 26, most contentious of upcoming primary) and "Bitcoin price on 4/20/16" (Wedge convergence on 4/15 is leading to a large amount of speculation on where the price will go from there).
Does anyone have any other suggestions or comments on the markets suggested above?
The delegate delta (difference) between sanders and clinton. Maybe ending May 24th. I believe its a -204 on sanders right now but an interesting bet would be where that ends on May 24th. That would only exclude the last of the Jun 7th states, and the market could be set up in a variety of ways. It could either be a bracket of ranges or it could just be linear like you did with the starwars opening weekend market. It would be interesting because a variety of paths could lead to an end result and it would require multiple events, but is easily verifiable at the end (just make sure to say certified results and wait to resolve until the dnc certifies so no one gets rustled if something is close).
Great, suggestion. Thanks!
Yes, it involves more complexity yet is still easily resolvable. I've just opened a market for this. It ends on May 11 instead of 24th due to some time restrictions on our end. Also I have clarified that superdelegates are excluded from the calculation.
Here's the description
"What will the difference in delegates be between Hillary Clinton and
Bernie Sanders on May 11, 2016?
This is calculated by (Clinton delegates) - (Sanders delegates) and
excludes superdelegates. The difference at the start of this market is
251 delegates. From the start of market to resolution there will be
primaries in NY, CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, IN, Guam, and WV for a total of 894
delegates.
"
I've added another new market for Bitcoin price on 5/15.
What will the price of Bitcoin be in USD on May 15th, 2016? Price will
be taken from the Coindesk Bitcoin Price Index found at
http://www.coindesk.com/price/ and will be calculated as ((Day High) +
(Day Low) / 2) on May 15th at 5PM PST.
Will SP500 index touch 2300 before March 15 2016?
Will Eth touch $12 before March 15 2016?
Will EUR/USD touch $ 1.14 before March 15 2016?
Yes/No
These are the best type of markets to trade on imo.
Brokers will generally charge a spread anywhere between 5% - 40% to trade on basic options like these.
Hedging is possible as well.